BoM Winter 2020 outlook
BoM Winter 2020 outlook

What’s in store for Northern NSW this winter

WINTER in Northern NSW could be wetter than average this year as The Bureau of Meteorology reveals most of the country showing an increased likelihood of more rain than usual in the coming three months.

The Bureau's Manager of Long-range Forecasts, Dr Andrew Watkins, said there were only a few areas across the country that weren't looking at a wetter than average winter.

"Most areas of mainland Australia are showing a better than 70 per cent chance of having a wetter than average winter," Dr Watkins said.

"The only exceptions are the coastal fringes of NSW ... where the outlook isn't pushing towards wetter or drier than average conditions."

Dr Watkins said the outlook was being largely driven by warmer than average ocean temperatures off north west WA, as well as warm ocean temperatures in the western Pacific.

"Ocean temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are currently warmer than normal, and our models are predicting they will warm further throughout the winter months.

"When warm sea surface temperatures occur closer to Australia, weather patterns shift towards us too, favouring more cloud and rainfall across the country.

"We last saw this happen in 2016, when a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole formed to the west of Australia. This was the last time we saw tropical moisture from the northern Indian Ocean deliver good winter rainfall to large parts of Australia.

"We aren't guaranteed the same results as 2016, but the warmer ocean temperatures surrounding the continent will push us in the direction of better than average rainfall."

Daytime temperatures throughout the winter months are expected to be warmer than average along the eastern seaboard.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across the entire country.


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