Start praying for a miracle if you want to surf this weekend

OK, SO last weekend took a bit of a nose-dive for waves.

A Tasman low, a similar system to an east coast low but sits out wide in the Tasman, stalled to the south and intensified on Saturday night.

End result, we all got blasted by howling onshore northerlies as it sucked all the warm air down the coast into its low-pressure cell.

The only options on Sunday were to give it a miss or huddle with the masses in the southern- facing corners.

Then the system promptly delivered swell on our doorstep on Monday as everyone went back to work.

Huey can be a bit rude like that sometimes.

To add insult to injury it's been cooking all week while most of the crew are at work.

The question is, will there be any leftovers for a long weekend surf feast?

While I'd like to be the bearer of good news, unless we get extremely lucky I wouldn't be banking on the idea of getting any really serious waves this weekend.

There was a subtropical low over near Fiji that has been feeding us a steady flow of easterly swell, but although not dead yet, that system is fading.

The Tasman low that hurled south swell at us all week has traversed the North Island of New Zealand.

It too is dissipating and its swell train is now blocked.

There is a massive low in the Bight.

We may see a minor influence from that over the next few days in the form of some south-east swell, but even if it does make it into our swell window, it will most likely be small and take a few days.

That system is being held way down south by three blocking highs.

Bottom line, unless a miraculous system suddenly develops in our region, I'm sorry to say it really is looking like little more than waist-high leftovers and knee-high scraps this weekend.

Our only hope is that a low may develop off the west coast of NZ, or the highs dissipate and allow the southern Tasman low into our window.

But we're skating pretty close to edge of fantasyland on that happening.

All long weekend we can expect the wind to be predominantly SW/S/SE varying from 10-15kts.

We might see some short period (8-10 secs) S/SE wind swell as a result of this southerly fetch.

Unless those high-press-ure systems collapse, it's unlikely to get bigger than 0.5-1.5m.

Unfortunately this combination also means that if you want any size, you'll need to accept the wind, because out of the wind will also mean out of the swell, or in other words, expect very small waves if you want clean waves.


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